Unsustainability of Civilization::
Society takes pride in its achievements without counting the real costs, the Laprin Looks Askance at our Society. By: Denis Frith | 07/10/2007 | Environment
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Dear Benjamin
You seem to have had a good year in sport. Well done. Watching you play basketball the other night took me back over fifty years! Not that I was any good but I had fun. Now I wonder what Laprin is going to say to you this year. Remember, we aim to clarify what reality is rather than the popular delusion about our wonderful society. We cannot change what is happening but you will be better able to make sound decisions if you are aware of this reality. Over to you, Laprin.
We have talked about the transportation problem and noted the emerging trend towards smaller, more fuel-efficient cars. I am sure, Benjamin, that you are aware that this trend continues despite the attempts by the carmakers to sell the virtues of their new big cars. However, you may not be aware of another major trend in transportation because it is strongest in Europe. For example, in Paris and a number of other cities, you can go to any one of a large number of bike parks, insert a card and take a bike for as long as you want it then return it to another of the bike parks. Your card is debited when you return the bike. You are charged nothing if you have it for less than half an hour. You are then charged according to the time you have it, including the full cost of the bike if it is not returned. This bike hire system has only been in operation for a year or so but has become very popular, for obvious reasons. It is being considered for Melbourne and Sydney.
I hope it is adopted here. Donâ ™t you agree, Benjamin? It would ease traffic congestion, save on fuel, reduce pollution and provide people with more healthy exercise. I saw in the Age recently that there are plans to greatly increase the number of bike paths in the Melbourne area. That is good.
I hope not too many people are fooled by the ups and downs of petrol prices. The reality is that new major oil field have not been found since before you were born while the demand for fuels for cars is still growing rapidly, partly because many Chinese can now afford their first cars. Most of the discussion by business people, politicians and on the media concentrate on the economics of supply and demand and ignore the reality that the limited supply of oil is getting scarce and hard to extract because the easy stuff has already been burnt.
It is really quite laughable, Benjamin, that the oil companies say how clever they are in extracting oil from the great depths of the Gulf of Mexico. They would not be doing that, especially with the risks from hurricanes, if they could get it elsewhere with less risk.
How true, DA. Airliners are also in the news because of their contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. There are protests here and in England about plans to enlarge airports so as to cater for airline growth. It is really surprising that there is not widespread concern about the supply of fuel for all these airliners. Why do you think this is so, DA?
I have puzzled about that for years, Laprin, because of my work on gas turbine engines during their rapid development. The big turbofan engines in airliners have been developed to run on a closely specified form of kerosene, which is refined from oil. As the supply of oil declines, a new fuel will have to be proven after the engines have been modified to cater for the different combustion characteristics. That takes a lot of work and time, yet there is very little sign of that being done now. Yet the production of the new A380 and Boeing Dreamliner is aimed at meeting an increasing demand for the coming decades. That cannot occur. It is absolutely incomprehensible that seemingly knowledgeable people can get it so wrong. Yet it is also incomprehensible that people like our Treasurer, Peter Costello, can continue to push economic growth when it is robbing future generations of the natural resources that support our life support system.
So true, DA. There has been a lot of discussion in the media in the past year about climate change.
It has become flavor of the year, hasnâ ™t it, Benjamin.
There is good reason for that. The latest IPCC report basically confirmed that the projections of the models produced by thousands of climatologists over many years about how the atmosphere was warming up rapidly. It is quite funny how many celebrities see fit to be skeptical about the findings of people who have spent their careers learning about this complex subject.
Figure 1 - Radiation Budget for Incoming Solar Radiation
I thought you might find this figure interesting, Benjamin. I have a lot of information like this to provide understanding about how fossil fuel burning is heating up the atmosphere. Now back to what we were discussing. Many people believe these skeptics because they have neither the time nor the inclination to look into the matter. I gather that Andrew Bolt has being making remarks in the Herald in which he attempts to debunk global warming. I hope, Benjamin, that you know how to regard the twaddle of the likes of Bolt.
The Usufruct Delusion::
Society has presumed that it can sustainably use natural resources to build and Laprin Looks Askance at our Society. By: Denis Frith | 07/10/2007 | Environment
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Free Articles by Denis Frith on ArticlesBase.com, submit your own articles just like this author. Laprin Looks Askance at our Society. 07/10/2007 | Environment
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We know it must be very difficult for you to learn which of contrary views you should believe. Often it is necessary to think through the issue so you can decide which is the more believable. In this case we have the hard evidence of that there are just so many unusual weather events going on around the world at this time. Flooding, heat waves and bush fires have struck Europe in recent weeks.
Sounds a bit like East Gippsland over the past year or so.
And the US as well. The Midwest is being hit by very wild weather and flooding at the moment while the southeast and southwest states are in the throws of droughts as bad as parts of Australia and Africa.
And do not forget parts of Africa, India, Bangladesh, Siberia and parts of South America.
The fires in Greece are horrific, partly because the Greek authorities do not have the experience of dealing with them that Australians and Californians have. This is a common problem with very unexpected natural disasters emerging due to climate change. There are so many unusual weather events occurring that it is very believable that the climate is changing without having to rely on what the experts are saying. It is interesting, Benjamin, that many flora and fauna are showing by their behavior that their environment is changing.
Yes, they are more knowledgeable than Bolt!
It is not only flora and fauna and many humans who appreciate what is happening. The Arcticâ ™s sea ice tends to melt a bit in summer. The polar bears and seals take advantage of that â “ or they used to. It has melted a lot more in recent years due to the warming so there have been fewer ice floes for the bears to hunt the seals. Observers have been horrified to find that many polar bears have drowned in seeking food on the isolated floes. Whilst what is happening in the Arctic is quite startling, the behavior of glaciers is probably more significant, particularly those in Greenland and West Antarctica. The sea level has already risen to a significant degree and the melting of these glaciers will cause it to rise appreciably more.
You will see many cities threatened by the rising sea levels during your lifetime.
I am afraid so, Benjamin. What happened to New Orleans was horrifying but there are many cities that are vulnerable to the rising sea level. The London authorities are considering what should be done to the Thames, including whether the Barrier needs to be raised. Thames Estuary 2100 project has the responsibility for proposing what needs to be done. I have not heard of similar planning for Melbourne. Have you, DA?
Yes Laprin, which is not surprising as many of the Bayside suburbs and the coastline are seen to be vulnerable. The government and council are busy using energy to desalinate water, deepening the Bay so bigger ships can bring in more stuff and digging tunnels so as to breed more cars! Yet they do have a program for specialists to become familiar with might occur so they can propose mitigation actions. But this is clearly given a lower priority that promoting business as usual.
You are being sarcastic, DA. Have you no faith in the leaders?
No
Well said, DA. And justifiably, too. After all, they are calling on people to cut back on their usage of energy so as to reduce their carbon emissions. They give the impression that will stop climate catastrophe. That is absolute rubbish. There is nothing Australians can do that will slow down climate change. Cutting back emissions globally drastically will, at best, reduce climate change. But that requires the big emitters, the Americans and the Chinese, doing their big bit and there is little sign of that as yet. Australians doing their little bit will not help.
Hang on, Laprin. You seem to be saying to Benjamin that there is nothing to be gained by Australians cutting back on energy usage.
I certainly would not want to do that! Anything that will be encourage people to make wiser use of the limited natural resources, including energy, is good but the people need to be given sound reasons. The leaders are not doing that. They are actually insulting people by expecting them to believe that Australians can influence climate change when it is the big polluters like America and China that have to cut back. But on to other problems. I expect many people are concerned about the equine flu problem that is having such a big impact on racing in Australia, as well as in other countries.
It would really be a shock if the Melbourne Cup could not proceed on the first Tuesday in November.
The point here, Benjamin, is that much is made of the benefits of globalization. We get cheap goods from China, a wide variety of food from all over and international touring is very popular. That is the good side. It does mean, however, that this spreading also applies to diseases and invasive species.
It is well known the damage that has been caused by the introduction of rabbits into Australia. Yet little has been learnt from that lesson. I expect, Benjamin, that you learn a lot more from your lessons.
It has been known for centuries that devastating plagues can occur at any time for unknown reasons. Just as you can catch a cold, nature can throw up a plague. There was a â ˜flu epidemic in 1918 that killed more people that the war that had just ended. Despite this knowledge, we have gone out of our way to make these natural plagues easier to spread far and wide! It is doubtful, however, whether the equine â ˜flu, avian â ˜flu or other natural epidemics will cause people to desist from globalization â “ whilst there is enough fuel for the trucks, planes and ships! There is little we can do to stop this exuberant devastation of the ecosystem. We can, however, help people to make wiser choices in the difficult times that are emerging. Many Tasmanians and prominent Mainlanders are having their say about the lack of wisdom in Gunnâ ™s building a pulp mill at Bell Bay. They are saying the cons outweigh the pros put forward by big business, Gunnâ ™s who are concerned with the money they can make.
It will be interesting to see how much impact this people power has. About thirty years ago the Tasmanian government were proposing to dam the Franklin River to provide another hydroelectric scheme. The people rose up and said no more devastation of our wilderness for this purpose. Their voice was so loud that, eventually the Hawke government stepped in and said to the Tasmanian government â ˜You will not dam the Franklin Riverâ ™. I hope we see more of this people power globally now and in the future. I will comment more on this next year. Hopefully we have seen some more progressive moves pushed by this people power with the aid of the Internet. Government and business need to be made aware of the reality that civilization is very dependent on what is available from the ecosystem, Gaia. Have a good Birthday, Benjamin.
Thank you, Laprin. You know where I am, Benjamin, if you have any questions. I would welcome a chat any time. I have nearly finished my book on this subject called â ˜What went wrong? The misdirection of civilizationâ ™. A recent draft is at http://users.bigpond.net.au/jaymz/download/Gaia_and_Us-Denis_Frith-jun07.doc
All the best for your Birthday.
Grandpa
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Laprin Looks Askance at our Society